Cautions Cost KeselowskI Win Chance at MIS

Brad Keselowski could almost taste the vital victory he had been yearning for and preaching about for weeks — sweetened by the fact that it could come on his home track — as he led the field with less than 30 laps to go in the Pure Michigan 400 on Sunday.

However, set on a fuel strategy different from his competitors, BK’s fate rested on the caution flags that have been unkind to him for much of the 2013 season, and when one came out with 26 laps remaining, the No. 2 team had a decision to make.

They’d need a few more flags to fly in order to make it to the end of the race on fuel and if they didn’t, BK faced a finish outside the Top 20 that would have dropped him out of the Top 10 in the points standings with three races left until the Chase.

With that in mind, Crew Chief Paul Wolfe called the Blue Deuce down pit road for fuel with 26 laps to go, sending Brad back to 17th place. The race stayed green from there — the caution they would have needed never coming to fruition — and BK managed to battle his way to a 12th place finish that helped him maintain his eighth place position in points. But that was of little consolation to Brad.

For weeks BK has stressed the importance of wins heading into the Chase, making his decision to pit late a tough pill to swallow.

“It’s really unfortunate when you work to put yourself in position to capitalize on your strategy and the yellow flags don’t fall your way,” Brad said. “It is the same deal every week. That can’t keep going that way. It’s like blackjack. You aren’t going to keep turning 15 or 16 on every hand. Eventually you are going to turn a good hand. We just didn’t catch it today.”

Earlier in the season, Brad would likely have tried for the victory. But because of their tenuous position in the standings and the knowledge that just a few points difference could knock them down as far as 13th with three races remaining until the Chase cutoff, BK and Wolfe had no choice but to avoid the risk and take the sure points.

“It’s frustrating,” Wolfe said. “It was real tough. But we’re not in the greatest situation right now, points-wise, and the risk-versus-reward situation wasn’t adding up in my head.”

The result was especially frustrating, given the speed of the No. 2 Miller Lite Ford Fusion at Michigan International Speedway. After starting in ninth, Brad quickly jumped into the top five by lap seven.

Three caution flags in the first 13 laps slowed the action at MIS but couldn’t slow the No. 2. By lap 35, BK had solidified his position in the top three, where he would remain for much of the race.

Yellow flags flew periodically throughout the day, which allowed the No. 2 team to keep the Blue Deuce running as fast as any machine at MIS. At the same time, the numerous cautions made strategy crucial for the contest.

The first major decision by BK and Wolfe came with just 50 laps remaining during the race’s seventh caution. While many leaders stayed out, Brad pitted for two tires and fuel with hopes of making it the remainder of the race without stopping.

On the next yellow flag at lap 157 the leaders made their stops while Kes stayed on the track, pushing him up to first place for the second time in the race. But the No. 2 team still needed a couple of late cautions to conserve enough fuel to make it to the checkered flag.

Brad led the next 16 laps until another caution came on lap 174. At this point, BK and Wolfe weighed their options and, with some input from team owner Roger Penske, eventually decided the risk was too great.

“We made the gamble to win the race on the run before the yellow came out and then pretty much we were on a dead end strategy,” BK said. “No matter what you do, you were going to lose, so we had to pit there on that last yellow. That’s just kind of the way our season has been. We made the move to take a chance at winning the race and all the stakes go against us. But that’s racing.”

As Wolfe alluded to afterward, the decision was made with the Chase in mind and when it came down to it, the No. 2 team had to take the sure points.

“I knew if we pitted there we should hopefully get a top 15 out of it and still keep ourselves in the top 10 in points where we need to be,” Wolfe said. “And I know going into these next races, these are all tracks where I feel we’re capable of winning races, and we’ll get our wins. So today was just, have a good solid day, continue to work on our points, and we did that.”

As it turned out, BK, Wolfe and Penske made the right decision. Mark Martin, who was on the same fuel strategy as Brad, elected to stay on the track for the final caution and ran out of gas with four laps to go, dropping from 1st to 27th.

If Brad had stayed out, he would have likely finished 26th. That result would have earned him just 19 points and dropped him to 12th in the NSCS standings. Instead, he picked up 33 points with his 12th place finish and remained in eighth place, eight points above the Top 10 cutoff point.

Though the result was not exactly what the No. 2 team wanted, Brad’s pit stop and Martin’s empty tank paved the way for BK’s Penske Racing teammate Joey Logano to take his first victory of the season. Logano now sits in 13th place in the Cup standings and is a serious contender to make the Chase. As Wolfe remarked after the race, having a teammate in the Chase could prove invaluable — as long as it doesn’t come at Brad’s expense.

“It’s good to see our teammate in Victory Lane and obviously that’s going to help their cause in making the Chase,” Wolfe said. “We’ve just got to keep working. Both cars were fast today, so that’s encouraging.”

Though Brad badly wanted to win on his hometrack, Logano’s first Cup victory since joining Penske Racing ended up as the silver lining to BK’s otherwise cloudy day.

“It makes the day much easier to swallow,” Brad said. “Obviously, I wanted Joey as my teammate here at Penske Racing. I envisioned us both contending for wins on a regular basis. I think we are right there. I really feel we can win any of the next three races before the Chase.”

NEXT UP

After a string of afternoon races, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series will be back under the lights at Bristol Motor Speedway next weekend for the Irwin Tools Night Race on Saturday night.

BK has finished in the Top 3 in three of his last four appearances at Bristol, a string that has included two trips to victory lane.

Brad last won last spring at Bristol and won the Irwin Tools Night race back in 2011. The results at Bristol, as well as the other tracks remaining before the Chase (Atlanta and Richmond) have the Blue Deuce crew feeling confident. Despite a solid but unspectacular result at Michigan, Wolfe believes strongly in his team’s chances over the last three races.

“I feel like out of these four races we had, (MIS) was probably our weakest track,” Wolfe said. “Heading to Bristol, we’ve obviously got a lot of confidence there as well as Atlanta and Richmond, where we run well.”

The green flag for the Irwin Tools Night Race is scheduled to fly at Bristol shortly after 7:30 p.m. EDT on Saturday night and the race will be broadcast live on ABC.

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